Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Description
In this landmark study of political forecasting, the author asks how expert judgment should be evaluated—and whether specialists can reliably anticipate the course of complex events. Drawing on an extensive analysis of predictions made by experts and informed nonexperts alike, the book compares competing approaches to reasoning about uncertainty, change, and political behavior. It reveals the habits of mind and styles of thinking most closely associated with accurate forecasts, while examining why confidence and expertise so often fail to produce good judgment. Rigorous yet accessible, the work offers a thought-provoking framework for understanding prediction, accountability, and the limits of human foresight.
Available Editions
paperback
Princeton University Press
Published Jul 31, 2006
352 pages
ISBN: 9780691128719
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Details
First Published
2005
Language
eng
Content Warnings
No content warnings identified.